Index relative value snapshot for May 6th, 2013. Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, S&P 400 Midcap
I get a lot of questions about break-even inflation rates on twitter. i am sick of answering the same ones over and over again. So here is some stuff for you to look at. draw your own conclusions.
Presented: scatter plots of TIPS break-even rates and their subsequent forward realized CPI headline inflation rates.
Let’s please put to death the ridiculous myth perpetuated by lazy hacks that break-evens or expectations (they are not the same thing) can create or affect inflation, it is simply untrue.
"…the path that we’re basing these numbers on is one that assumes, first of all, as you anticipated, assumes an increase in the funds rate first occurring some time after unemployment goes below 6½ percent, but does not necessarily assume a rapid increase after that. And I—what we said in our statement is that we would take a balanced approach. In other words, you know, once we get to that point, we may or may not raise rates at that point. We’ll look at the situation. But assuming that inflation remains well controlled, which I fully anticipate, I think that the rate of increase in rates would be moderate."
— Chairman Bernanke, in response to Jon Hilsenrath. Page 13-14. FOMC Press Conference Transcript, December 12, 2012
